Michael Ash, economics and public policy, has developed a that offers a novel perspective on President Donald Trump鈥檚 approval and disapproval ratings leading up to the November election.
Ash鈥檚 dashboard compares approval and disapproval ratings for Trump and 12 previous incumbent presidents as Election Day approaches. While other analyses, such as Nate Silver鈥檚 , compare ratings of Trump and otherincumbents starting from the first day of each president鈥檚 assumption of office,Ash presents the comparison as a countdown to Election Day.
Ash believes that tracking the data from the start of each president鈥檚 serviceis not useful for those who took office outside the normal election cycle, such as Harry Truman, Gerald Ford and Lyndon Johnson. For example, he says that comparing Trump鈥檚 and Johnson鈥檚 approval ratings at three years and eight months into their presidencies is not a useful comparison, as that marker places Trump at the tail end of his first term while it misses Johnson鈥檚 landslide re-election in 1964, oneyear after he assumed office following the Kennedy assassination.
鈥淭hree years and eight months into Johnson鈥檚 presidency is well into the late 鈥60s, when the war in Vietnam was a widely acknowledged catastrophe, and Johnson had become very unpopular,鈥 Ash said. Johnson ultimately chose not to seek his party鈥檚 nomination in 1968.
A more useful comparison, he says, would be to compare Johnson鈥檚 and Trump鈥檚 ratings four months before Election Day in, respectively, 1964 and 2020. In the summer of 1964, Johnson enjoyed approval ratings of more than 70%, and he went on to aneasy re-election. The FiveThirtyEight model 鈥渕isses where Johnson was on the eve of the election,鈥 Ash said.
Ash鈥檚 dashboard shows that Trump鈥檚 approval rating in the countdown to Election Day is markedly lower than that of incumbents who went on to win re-election, including Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, Richard Nixon, Johnson and Dwight Eisenhower. Trump has similar approval ratings to two who went on to lose, George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter. At this point Trump鈥檚 approval is on par with that of Harry Truman, whose vigorous final campaign months led to a narrow victory, but lags substantially behind that of Ford, who was denied re-election. A similar pattern holds when comparing Trump鈥檚 disapproval ratings to the other presidents.
鈥淸Trump is] doing worse than almost everyone who won re-election, but he鈥檚 doing as well or better than most of the single-term presidents at this point in the election cycle,鈥 Ash said.
Ash鈥檚 project uses Gallup approval polling garnered from the University of Santa Barbara鈥檚 . The dashboard and its associated code are posted on , an open-source sharing platform, and he invites other researchers to weigh in with their thoughts or suggested improvements.